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Implications of a second Trump Presidency

In the first 2 months of his second term, President Trump has issued over 80 Executive orders and other actions from the White House, many of which will impact the work of PBI, the human rights defenders we accompany, and human rights campaigns worldwide.  

Banner photo (above) taken from a still of President Trump’s inauguration speech linked here and below.

On March 4, President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress at which he highlighted the Executive Orders he has issued and his vision for how Congress should implement his legislative agenda.

In his inaugural address, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to sign a series of Executive orders including declaring “a national emergency at our southern border,” beginning “the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came” (in other words, mass deportations from the U.S.) and “designating the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.”

Trump has thus far kept his promise.

Trump’s Border Emergency

As part of his Executive Orders, Trump declared that an invasion is occurring at the US-Mexico border and ordered that the border be closed, even to those seeking asylum. Declaring a national emergency at the border, Trump ordered that within 90 days he be given a report about whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807, which would allow the military to be involved in domestic policing duties, at the border and possibly elsewhere.

In addition to closing the border to those seeking asylum, his order states that “any alien who fails, before entering the United States, to provide Federal officials with “sufficient medical information and reliable criminal history and background information” is “detrimental to the interests of the United States” and cannot enter, including to claim asylum.

Trump has also suspended refugee resettlement for 90 days (see program details here, pending an investigation to determine whether to continue the program. Additionally, according to Reuters, the Trump administration is considering revoking the legal status of 240,000 Ukrainians who have sought refugee in the U.S. and deporting them.

Following the adoption of the Executive orders, the raids and deportations began, with more than 2,000 arrests of immigrants made in the first two weeks of Trump’s presidency. The Sunday after his inauguration, Trump’s Department of Homeland Security detained over 1,000 migrants in one raid, finding that almost half of them were ineligible for deportation. More than a thousand more were arrested the next day. 

Arrests of undocumented immigrants, including those with no criminal record, have been reported across the country. During raids, immigrants who are U.S. citizens have been arrested. Raids are now allowed at schools, places of worship, healthcare sites, shelters and relief centers, and other “sensitive” locations, although legal challenges have been launched. Reports are also surfacing of warrantless arrests being carried out, including at immigrants’ homes, in places like Chicago and New Jersey.

While the number of arrests have increased, the Trump Administration has been thus far unsuccessful at deporting as many individuals as he may have hoped, lacking the infrastructure and financing to significantly ramp up deportations.

Trump’s “War on Terror”

Trump has issued an order that that designates cartels and “other organizations” as “foreign terrorist organizations,” a designation designed to obviate due process and set the stage for the invocation of the Alien Enemies Act.

The Mexican cartels and Tren de Aragua (TdA) and La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) are mentioned specifically in the executive order—cartels associated with Venezuela and El Salvador. According to the order, “the Secretary of State shall take all appropriate action, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Director of National Intelligence, to make a recommendation regarding the designation of any cartel or other organization described in section 1 of this order as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.” Also the same authorities will make a recommendation on whether to invoke the Alien Enemies Act and to prepare such facilities as necessary to expedite the removal of those who may be designated under this order. Invoking the Alien Enemies Act would allow the Trump administration to detain and remove, without due process, anyone designated as part of this so-called invasion, including those with legal status.

CNN reports that Trump officials are evaluating where to send migrants if the Aliens Enemies Act were enacted. Legal experts have cautioned that Trump may face an uphill battle in court when trying to apply a law to drug cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations that was intended to be applied to foreign governments.

Days after designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, Trump signed an executive order expanding Guantanamo Bay to house the “worst of the worst,” repeat offenders who cannot be sent to other countries. The executive order states that those who will be sent there would be “high-priority criminal aliens unlawfully present in the United States.” In remarks to the press, Trump implied the detention there would be indefinite: “We don’t want them coming back,” Trump said. “So we’re going to send them out to Guantanamo.”

According to Vince Warren, executive director of the Center for Constitutional Rights:

“the order - directing the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to prepare to hold 30,000 people - sends a clear message: migrants and asylum seekers are being cast as the new terrorist threat, deserving to be discarded in an island prison, removed from legal and social services and supports.”

The use of Guantanamo to detain those unlawfully in the U.S. has been challenged by the ACLU and other groups who claim the Trump Administration’s use of Guantanamo Bay as an immigration detention center is only meant to instill panic and fear among the migrant population in the U.S.

Truthout reports: “At least three detainees have died in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody since Trump took office, the most deaths recorded in the first quarter of the year since 2020.”

Trump’s Tariffs

The Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff against Canada and Mexico and an additional 20% tariff against Chinese goods, claiming a lack of efforts from all three countries to stop the illegal production and trafficking of Fentanyl. In doing so, Trump stated that “this Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

China responded, placing 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton imports from the US and a 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, industries identified by China as mattering the most to Trump supporters. China will also cease lumber imports from the U.S. Canada responded with a $30 Billion tariff against U.S. goods with promises to impose a $125 Billion Tariff on March 25.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum chose a more diplomatic approach. While she also announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. imports in response to Trump, she stated that the tariffs would not take effect until Sunday, March 9, allowing time to negotiate a deal. On March 6, Sheinbaum spoke with Trump and was able to get a waiver for Mexico from the tariffs until April 2. Later, Trump also extended the reprieve until April 2 to Canada.

More tariffs to come? Steel and aluminum tariffs are set to go into effect March 12. And reciprocal tariffs, dollar-for-dollar tariffs that match what other countries impose on U.S. goods, are expected to go into effect on April 2.

Trumps Cuts to U.S. Foreign Aid

In January, Trump suspended all foreign aid for development assistance, exempting Israel and Egypt. The suspension was to be for 90 days, pending a review by all relevant department heads to see whether the programs align with guidelines that will be developed by the Secretary of State and the director of the Office of Budget and Management. 

The U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) were ordered to block all funding obligations and stop work on existing programs, affecting civil society organizations around the world receiving USAID funds. The order appears to violate the law, however, since Congress had already appropriated the funds. On March 5, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 5-4 to uphold a lower court ruling directing the administration to release the funds.

Aid to Gaza

While the Trump administration has attempted to block billions in foreign aid that supports international development and humanitarian assistance, in just the first 6 weeks of the administration, nearly $12 billion in military assistance has been sent to Israel, even as Israel institutes a renewed blockade against aid and needed goods into Gaza. The blockade began on Sunday [March 2] and as reported by Truthout is “plunging the Gaza Strip back into some of the worst days of the genocide.”

UK Aid

The CBC reports: “British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday [February 25] he would increase annual defense spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027 and target a three per cent level. The increase would see Britain spending 13.4 billion pounds ($17.3 billion US) more on defense every year from 2027. Britain’s Defense Ministry said it spent 53.9 billion pounds ($69.6 billion US) in the 2023/24 financial year.” That article adds: “With public spending already stretched in Britain, Starmer said the increase would be fully paid for by a 40 per cent cut to international aid … The international aid budget will be cut from 0.5 per cent of gross national income to 0.3 per cent in 2027.”

PBI UK responded to the announcement that U.S. and UK foreign aid were being cut: “We are stunned and disappointed by the UK Government’s decision to slash aid in order to fund defense spending. Following in the wake of the USAID freeze, this decision will leave even more civil society organizations and human rights defenders exposed at a time of escalating global crises. Cutting aid means cutting support for the very initiatives that prevent conflicts, avert climate change, and help communities to live peacefully on their land, rather than have to flee.”

PBI urges both governments to reconsider their decisions and to instead develop a holistic approach with civil society at its core, so that foreign aid and diplomacy can be as impactful as possible both now and in the future.

Trump’s Antisemitism and Student Protests

In Trump’s second week in office, he directed the Justice Department to examine all administrative complaints filed at colleges and universities alleging antisemitism after October 2023, to prosecute hate speech, work with authorities to deport offenders where applicable, and to advise colleges and universities on what qualifies as hate speech when related to antisemitism and would make a potential student inadmissible into the United States. A joint task force to combat antisemitism was formed to focus initially on ten universities, Columbia University topping the list

All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests,” Trump wrote on social media on March 4.

On March 7, the Trump administration announced the cancellation of $400 million in federal grants and contracts to Columbia University. The joint task force to combat antisemitism issued an official announcement, claiming the decision to rescind funding was in response to the school’s failure to combat antisemitism on campus. It has been reported that Columbia had already begun disciplining students, even for activities such as writing op-eds in the student newspaper about the Palestine solidarity movement. In February, a disciplinary committee formed in summer 2024 at Columbia, the Office of Institutional Equity, launched several cases against students to investigate their social media posts, their participation in protests, their posting of “wanted” stickers off campus featuring university trustees, their hosting an art exhibition in a private building, and other actions critical of Israel.

In response to the loss of funding, Columbia’s interim president, Katrina Armstrong stated that Columbia is “committed to working with the federal government to address their legitimate concerns.” Armstrong continued by emphasizing that “Columbia can, and will continue to take serious action toward combatting antisemitism on our campus. This is our number one priority.”

The U.S. Justice Department has also announced an investigation into the University of California system over alleged antisemitism following last year’s protests against the genocide of Palestinians.

Meanwhile, Truthout reports that the Trump administration is using AI to “scour the social media accounts of student visa holders for ‘pro-Hamas’ content.” The “Catch and Revoke,” program uses AI technology to identify students for deportation that have shown support for Hamas. On March 6, Fox News reported that the administration had revoked the visa of a student the State Department accused of participating in “Hamas-supporting disruptions.”

Although there have been reports of both antisemitism and Islamophobia in either pro-Palestinian protests or pro-Israeli counter-protests, Trump’s order only targets alleged antisemitism.  

The actions of the Trump administration have only amplified the repression already being felt by pro-Palestinian student protestors. Students who protested last year faced suspensions, expulsions, and in some cases violent arrests.

The Associated Press reported 70 incidents at 54 college campuses throughout the United States in spring 2024 during student protests over the genocide in Gaza. In April 2024, NPR reported: “The debate over the war in Gaza has embroiled campuses for months, but demonstrations were super-charged earlier this month when Columbia University called in the New York Police Department to clear a student encampment. Similar protests have since continued across the nation.” Nearly 3200 arrests were made by police on campuses from coast to coast during the spring of 2024. 

Now, students face even greater repression as some schools rush to comply with Trump’s executive orders banning “DEI” programs by canceling events, scrubbing words like “diversity” and “inclusion” from their websites, eliminating DEI offices, and even scholarships.

Civil rights advocates caution that preventing Trump from withholding federal funds and punishing states and municipalities that defy his agenda is necessary to prevent even broader crackdowns on dissent.

In the first 2 months of his second term, Trump has issued over 80 Executive orders and other actions from the White House, many of which will impact the work of PBI, the human rights defenders we accompany, and human rights campaigns worldwide. 

Below we highlight how Trump’s actions could have a negative impact on the countries where PBI has a presence.

MEXICO

The Guardian reports that [the United States government] designating Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) “could be the first step towards U.S. military strikes in Mexican territory.” The article adds: “While the designation of cartels as FTOs itself will not authorize U.S. military action in Mexico, some fear it would be the first step towards it. Trump has already suggested bombing drug labs, and has reportedly discussed sending special forces to kill cartel leaders.”

PBI-Mexico has previously reported that the ‘War on Drugs’ [launched in 2006] has resulted in a drastic increase in violence in the country with horrific numbers of human rights violations. According to our team in Mexico, both the presence of organized crime related to drug trafficking, and the current methods and strategies with which States respond to this issue, imply increased and specific risks for human rights defenders.

Also of note, Trump re-instituted the “Migrant Protection Protocol,” also known as Remain in Mexico, which forces asylum seekers to remain in Mexico to await an appointment for asylum. They cannot enter the U.S. (as was the case previously) to await an asylum appointment in the United States. Mexico has not yet agreed to host migrants who are awaiting asylum opportunities in the US. Sheinbaum has said her government is offering humanitarian assistance to those deported back to Mexico, as well as to migrants of other nationalities, including offering “mechanisms to be repatriated” if they voluntarily want to return to their home countries.

CANADA 

CBC has previously reported: “With U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration just days away, the [Canadian] government announced it is sending a slew of drones and two leased Black Hawk helicopters to the shared border to begin beefed-up patrols.” These Lockheed Martin-Sikorsky built helicopters are being used by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and conceivably could also be deployed by the controversial Community-Industry Response Group (C-IRG) in a militarized action against land and environmental defenders, reports PBI Canada. Since making the $5.3 million investment to strengthen border security, the Black Hawk helicopters have been used to stop one border crossing over a 6 week period.

NICARAGUA 

Trump has suspended humanitarian parole for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. According to the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Migrants (USCRM), over 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans have lawfully and safely entered the United States [through humanitarian parole] with the help of U.S.-based sponsors. The USCRM states: “The program aimed to alleviate land migration through the U.S.-Mexico border by creating a legal pathway to enter the United States. Both U.S.-based sponsors and parole beneficiaries were subjected to a strict vetting procedure before parolees were allowed entry into the United States on a temporary basis.”

Suspension of the refugee resettlement program will also have an impact on Nicaraguans who continue to flee the country in large numbers to escape political instability and human rights abuses.

COLOMBIA 

Americas Quarterly reports: “Trump is likely to pressure Colombia over an increase in cocaine production and [Colombian president Gustavo] Petro’s Total Peace strategy, leading to increased tension in the relationship between Washington and Bogotá, a possible reduction in military aid and even the threat of economic sanctions.” WOLA adds: “Returning to harmful, ineffective policies that characterized the first years of ‘Plan Colombia,’ like a hardline security approach to combat drugs—which often leads to [human rights] abuses—will not solve the problem of illicit economies.”

GUATEMALA 

Al Jazeera reports: “Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a research organization [says the Biden Administration] stood firm on [Guatemalan president Bernardo] Arevalo’s election [but now] Trump’s return to power could shift momentum in the other direction. …Some politicians with histories of election denialism, like [Guatemalan special prosecutor Rafael] Curruchiche in Guatemala are cheering someone they perceive to be a kindred spirit. ‘The far right in Guatemala is sharpening its knives right now, because they know they’re going to have friends in the White House,’ Isacson said.”

HONDURAS

WOLA has also commented: ”We are likely to see ongoing pressure from Republicans in Congress and the administration on President Xiomara Castro in Honduras, given concerns about policies that are impacting U.S. businesses and her ties with Venezuela, Cuba, China, Nicaragua, and other U.S. adversaries.” Global Witness has stated: “The US should have a strong international voice in support of human rights defenders, yet its actions have often fallen short of ensuring their safety. During his previous term, Trump pursued a policy of isolation from international collaboration, including withdrawing from the UN’s Human Rights Council. A return to this approach would send a deeply concerning message that the U.S. is moving backwards in its support of land and environmental defenders who are at-risk from violence, arrest and land invasions.”

GLOBAL

Trump has also directed a review of designations of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) made by the Biden Administration. The review would affect people from Nepal, Hondurans, and Nicaraguans, among others. On January 28th, it was reported that the Trump administration has ended TPS for Venezuelans and Haitians, though Biden, just before leaving office, had extended their TPS for an additional 18 months. 

Immigrant rights groups are suing the Trump administration in an attempt to keep the order, which would leave hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans and Haitians without legal protection from deportation, from going into effect.

For more, read Latin America: War on drugs should not induce war on defenders (Peace Brigades International, the International Service for Human Rights, September 2015).

Other statements with foreign policy implications
The climate crisis: In his inaugural speech, Trump also said he would declare “a national energy emergency.” He added: “We will drill, baby, drill.” NPR further reports: “President Donald Trump is withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement — again,” removing “the largest historical contributor of total carbon dioxide emissions” from a global effort to “limit global warming and forestall the worst impacts of climate change.”

LGBTQI+ rights: In addition to banning transgender individuals from the military on day one as well as in a follow up memo, Trump also stated: “As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female.” Human Rights Watch has stated: “Trump’s past unwillingness to discuss human rights issues with foreign leaders could prove very harmful to LGBT people abroad.”

Other concerns
The safety of journalists: Article 19 comments: “Trump’s well-documented hostility towards the media is a direct attack on the public’s right to know. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump openly endorsed violence towards journalists and threatened retribution against media outlets that cover him negatively, including revocation of broadcasting licenses and even jailing reporters.” Trump’s appointment as head of the FBI, Kash Patel, has previously called for the prosecution of journalists.

Arms sales to repressive regimes: Defense analyst William Hartung, a Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, writes: “The case that makes a mockery of [Biden] administration rhetoric about supporting human rights and a ‘rules-based international order’ is the continued supply of weaponry to Israel … Could a Trump administration be any worse at handing out weapons to repressive regimes and into war zones? … A Trump presidency is good news for weapons contractors who are already awash in funding from the the Pentagon and scores of foreign clients. But to the extent that aggressive arms dealing fuels wars and bolsters dictators, it is terrible news for the rest of us.” In the first 6 weeks of Trump’s second term, the administration has sent nearly $12 billion in military assistance to Israel.

Article compiled with contributions by Amelia Parker/PBI-USA, Pat Davis/US Advocacy, Ben Leather/PBI UK, and Brent Patterson/PBI Canada.